Over Under Win Totals Nfl
- Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021
- Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
- Vegas Over Under Win Totals Nfl
- Over Under Win Totals Nfl
- Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
Do you bet a team will win more than the 9 games they’re projected to win or under?
This article will answer that question. It will lay out examples you need to consider making educated bets on teams’ projected win totals so when you wager win totals, you will increase your odds of winning.
At the end of the day, it's impossible to predict everything right in the NFL. But for now, here are a few teams that are the best bets for the over and few that are solid bets for the under on their win totals. All over/under totals are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 (-125).
This article gives you a blueprint and the examples are not telling you who to bet on and who to stay away from. Instead, it will give you a blueprint to research specific factors that will affect a team’s win-loss record.
Nothing is set in the NFL and even the most educated bettor can’t predict a perfect over-under on win totals. However, you can put yourself in the best position to win such bets if you know what to do.
Teams are listed with their listed 2020 win total, per BetMGM, along with their under/over odds, listed in that order. For example, the Cardinals are currently listed at 6.5 (+135/-164), meaning a. With the 2020 NFL schedule now released, we have a better idea of the best over/under bets for projected NFL win totals. Here's a look at three teams in each category, including the Tampa Bay. And when it comes to NFL win totals, the model is coming off another banner year. In 2019, it went 18-11 on its over-under picks, with three pushes. Now, the model has generated each team's. The NFL has wrapped up the 2020 regular season. The playoff field is set and teams have clinched their over or under (or push) on sportsbook preseason win totals. Week by week, we tracked which teams officially met or surpassed preseason projected win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook, and which teams came up short.
Let’s explore 5 factors to consider when betting on NFL win totals.
1- Strength of Schedule
The 1st factor is the most important. Analyze strength of schedule before you place a bet on either an over or under.
If a team projects somewhere in the 9-10 win column but they’re playing in a weak division plus the AFC and NFC division they’re slated to play is also weak…
They will probably win more than their allotted number of games.
You can say the same for teams slated to win that same number but are playing in the league’s toughest division and are playing a tougher AFC or NFC division.
In that case, you want to bet the under.
Strength of schedule is the overall indicator whether to bet the over or the under on projected win totals.
But there are other factors to consider that can show otherwise. I’m laying out 3 factors to consider before ending with a final factor you must consider.
2- Strength of Division
This one’s important. Suppose there are 3 solid teams playing in the same division and it has happened in the past.
There have been times the worst record in a division is 7-9, meaning all 4 teams can win. It also means all 4 teams can fall short of their odds.
Yes, 1 or 2 of those teams might reach and exceed their projected win total. It also means 1 or 2 won’t.
Instead, focus on teams whose divisions possess a larger discrepancy of team talent. If a rebuilding team or 2 are in the same division along with an above-average team, this could be a potential home run.
Especially if a team you’re targeting appears to have middle of the road talent. It’s likely this team will exceed their projected win total since 2 teams they’re playing will not win many games.
There are no guarantees, but a team like the Buffalo Bills are a good example of this in 2020. Per CBS sports, they’re projected to win 9 games. The New England Patriots are also sitting at 9.
The Bills, as evidenced in 2019, are on the rise.
They also traded for one of the better receivers in the game in Stefon Diggs. Their defense was phenomenal in 2019. One of the best in the league.
2 weak teams in the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Neither figure to do much unless the Football Gods have a miracle up their sleeves.
Let’s look at the Patriots. Right now their potential quarterbacks are Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. A journeyman and a 2nd-year player drafted on the last day of the draft. Lightning doesn’t strike twice often in the NFL if you know where I’m going with Stidham.
That said, the Bills would be great to bet an over and the Patriots would be safe to bet the under.
Yes, Bill Belichick is still in New England.
But it’s hard for even a good team to win without a decent quarterback. Just ask Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I’m not telling you what to do and who to bet on. I’m just laying out examples clarifying what I mean here and nothing more.
3- Offseason Roster Moves
Did teams you’re targeting to wager win totals on receive offseason makeovers?
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021
If so, stop.
Many of these teams might look good on paper, but in reality, you’ll rarely see them break out. It happens, but most of the time these are oddsmaker traps.
Teams who may have signed a marquee quarterback, but have little more to work with are examples.
If a team overhauled their roster and most of the team hasn’t experienced playing together, it’s also a red flag.
Look for teams who’ve made roster moves to fill missing gaps. Too often, novice NFL gamblers will wager teams who made moves equivalent to what’s seen in Madden Franchise mode with the salary cap turned off.
This is real life, not a video game. Players need time to mesh and new rookies need time to get used to the NFL game. Some rookies adapt faster than others but they all go through growing pains.
Keep away from teams who are rebuilding and even if they nabbed a prize free agent or two, don’t be tempted. Teams like this might also make a blockbuster trade in the draft or before it. Again, stay away.
A good way to increase your odds of winning an over is to look for teams that are one or two pieces away.
Teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, who signed Tom Brady, are a good example. The Buccaneers already have one of the best receiving duos in football and now they added an accomplished quarterback.
They have a solid defense, ranking 15th in yards allowed in 2019. They held onto a lot of players.
They also have to compete with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and they play Green Bay and Minnesota, 2 more playoff teams from the year before.
Add in the Super Bowl 54 champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and Tampa’s path isn’t the easiest.
The Bucs went 7-9 last season with Jameis Winston, who proved to be a turnover machine and constantly gave opponents a short field. They put up a lot of points with Winston, and now they have a quarterback who takes care of the ball.
Online Oddsmakers will have the Buccaneers ranked higher than in 2019. They’re also likely to have Green Bay and New Orleans, the latter being a division rival, with a higher win total.
CBS sports have 8 NFC teams chosen to win more than the Buccaneers, who are sitting at 9 as I write this. It’s what I mean when I say the Buccaneers are safer picks for an over.
4- Roster Stability
News recently broke that the New England Patriots traded longtime tight-end who took 2019 off to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reunite with Tom Brady. Oddsmakers are upping Tampa’s win total as I write this.
Gronkowski and Brady won 3 Super Bowls together with the Patriots, and Gronkowski will be 31 when the 2020 season begins.
Anyone who wagers money on NFL win totals in 2020 will take a hard look at Tampa. The Bucs also have arguably the best pair of receivers in football in Curtis Godwin and Mike Evans.
They have a fair tight-end in O. J. Howard to team with Gronkowski.
Looking at Tampa’s roster outside Brady and Gronkowski, it’s relatively stable. There are a lot of names from the last 2 seasons who are still with the team today. Now, they inserted a quarterback who doesn’t specialize in throwing the ball to the other team 30 times a season.
They also have a proven winner with Bruce Arians at head coach. This is a primary example of a team with a solid, stable roster who added through the draft and free agency. The Bucs will be a smart pick for an over.
Anyone dissecting Cleveland’s roster last offseason should’ve known. They had a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens. They had 2 new starters in the defensive backfield. They traded for a player whose brand is larger than the city of Cleveland in Odell Beckham Jr.
Also, the Browns had discipline problems dating back to the preseason when sporting outlets reported the number of fights the team started in joint practices with the Colts.
The smart gambler would’ve stayed away from them.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
Baker Mayfield jawed too often with the media. Myles Garrett missed the last 6 games after getting suspended for swinging a helmet at Steelers’ quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett was flagged earlier in the season for throwing an open-handed punch at Delanie Walker.
Beckham continually drew attention to himself on things that weren’t football-related.
Vegas Over Under Win Totals Nfl
Again, any gambler who conducted research would’ve stayed away from the Browns.
The better bet for an over would’ve been the 14-2 Ravens, who hardly any oddsmaker had winning the AFC North prior to the 2019 preseason. Despite far more roster and coaching stability than Cleveland. Sure, they had a new quarterback, but most everything else was intact.
Especially the system the team had in place.
Don’t worry so much about who’s on the roster. It could be a roster full of Pro Bowl players but if they haven’t played together, they’re not a good wager. Even if oddsmakers say differently.
5- Research Divisions Other than Your Favorite Team’s
Over Under Win Totals Nfl
I don’t care how much you say you won’t, you will always overrate your favorite team. And you will always underrate their division rivals. My recommendation is that you wager over-under win totals on the opposite conference.
The best thing for me to do is bet on the NFC.
Even if oddsmakers predict your favorite team will have lower win totals and it’s easier for them to overcome odds.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
Don’t bet on them. Go to the other conference and wager them.
Conclusion
It seems like a lot, but it isn’t. If you follow the NFL year-round, pay attention to the league’s scheduling formula, and note who’s playing who, you will bet well predicting win totals.
And never bet the over if a team merely signed marquee players and drafted a few studs who never played on the same team.
There’s a lot that goes into increasing your odds on win totals and the best time to think about who you’re betting on is after the league schedule is generated in the spring, following the NFL Draft.